A Class Structured Mathematical Model For Polio Virus In Nigeria

In this paper, a bilinear mathematical model of ordinary differential equations is introduced to investigate the transmission dynamics of polio virus in Nigeria. The effect of vaccines versus environmental clean-up efforts on disease transmission is discussed. In the modeling process, Monte Carlo simulations were employed to approximate the values of three unknown parameters. Transmission is assumed to occur only through the fecal-oral route. Model analysis is conducted through computer simulation, and the simulations are repeated using different probability distributions for the length of the infectious period (γ), and the likelihood of total eradication is derived in each case. The results suggest that lower environmental virus concentrations can lead to eradication when the length of the infectious period is distributed exponentially. However, in some cases increased environmental clean up efforts are more effective than continuing to increase the number of vaccinations. The model is used to collect data for the values of its three unknown parameters.